A Primer on Trade
By Mark Brandly
[Posted November 07, 2002]
Hardly
a day goes by when I don't read something crazy on the subject of
international trade, from pundits who blame it for America's
economic and social woes, to those who think trade can only thrive in
the context of treaties and war. In truth, international trade is
nothing more than an extension of the idea of exchange itself: that all
people are better off cooperating through contract than fighting with
force and coercion.
For
that reason, the case for free trade is an important part of the
general case for liberty. The argument that people should be free to
trade across political borders can be applied to exchange at any level,
not only to exchange between citizens of different countries but also
to trade within a country. But this point is so little understood, it
occurred to me that what is needed is a brief introduction to the
entire subject.
Terminology
Since
this is an introductory essay, it's appropriate to begin with a
discussion of the basic terminology of trade. In the broad sense, international trade
is any commerce that takes place across political borders. Any trade
between people in different countries is international trade.
The balance of payments is
the government's attempt to measure all international trade activity.
The major accounts in the balance of payments are exports, imports,
capital inflows, and capital outflows. Exports and imports
are goods and services sold to and purchased from foreign interests,
respectively. It's important to remember that generally these goods and
services are exchanged for currency. When exported and imported goods
cross a political border in one direction, currency crosses the border
in another direction.
In
addition to exports and imports, much of the trade in the world
involves situations where no assets leave or enter a country. These
exchanges are called capital flows. Capital inflows occur when
foreign interests acquire assets in this country. Examples include the
purchase of stocks, bonds, real estate, and businesses. Most capital
inflows can be thought of as investments, individuals from one country
are investing in another country. Conversely, capital outflows occur
when domestic interests acquire assets in another country. Just as one
country's imports are another country's exports, a capital inflow for
one country is another country's capital outflow.
When the dollar value of a country's imports exceeds the dollar value of its exports, the country has a trade deficit.
If the country is exporting more than it imports, it has a trade
surplus. A trade deficit implies that due to the trade of goods and
services, more currency is flowing out of the country than into the
country. This net currency outflow is generally associated with a net
capital inflow. Similarly, a trade surplus is associated with a net capital outflow. This topic will be addressed later in this essay.
If a government allows its citizens to engage in these commercial transactions without any restriction of any kind, this is free trade. However, most international commerce involves government intervention. Protection
is any policy that restricts trade in order to protect a domestic
industry from foreign competition. Protectionist policies include tariffs (taxes on imports), quotas (limits on the quantity of imports), and non-tariff trade barriers
such as mandates on the quality or the content of imported goods.
Protection increases the price of imported goods, reducing the amount
of imports, thus protecting some domestic industry from foreign
competition. A tariff or quota on imported trinkets, for example,
raises the price of imported trinkets making it easier for the domestic
trinket industry to gain market share.
It's
important to note that consumers are the main beneficiaries of trade
and the main victims of protection. Trade drives down prices allowing
consumers to buy more goods and protection increases prices.
Pro and Contra Trade
Let's
now consider the cases for and against trade. The classic argument that
provides us with the primary economic justification for free trade is
called the law of comparative advantage. According to this
argument, a country will profit by specializing in the production of
goods in which it has a comparative advantage and trading for goods in
which it does not have a comparative advantage. Free trade will result
in a better use of a country's resources.
Under
free trade, a country will use its resources more efficiently in the
sense that it will increase the amount of goods available for
consumption and production. It will tend to specialize by producing
goods that it can produce using fewer resources than its trading
partners. This specialization generates the benefits of trade.
A
key to understanding this law is realizing that there are two ways for
a country to acquire a good. The country can produce the good, cars for
example, directly by using its own resources, or it can produce a
different good, say wheat, export the wheat, and in return receive
imported cars. Foreign trade is simply a way of producing cars by using
domestic resources to produce wheat and then trade converts the wheat
into cars.[1]
In
order to understand this argument, consider a country, Ruritania, with
$100 of resources available. Assume that if Ruritania does not trade
with the rest of the world, Ruritanians annually produce 5 cars using
$10 of resources per car. This requires $50 of resources, leaving
enough resources to produce 50 bushels of wheat using $1 of resources
per bushel. Increasing the production of cars to 6 cars would mean that
Ruritania would need to decrease the production of wheat by 10 bushels.
The economic cost of producing a car is 10 bushels of wheat.
Now,
assume that Ruritanian citizens are allowed to trade freely with the
rest of the world and that Ruritania can reap the gains of trade by
specializing in the production wheat and trading for cars. For the sake
of simplification, assume that Ruritanians can purchase foreign cars
for $6 of resources per car. In other words, for every car that is
imported, Ruritanians must, since wheat costs $1 of resources per
bushel, produce 6 fewer bushels of wheat. The economic cost of imported
cars, 6 bushels of wheat, is less than the economic cost of producing
domestic cars, 10 bushels of wheat. It is in this sense that Ruritania
has a comparative advantage in wheat production and is at a comparative
disadvantage in the production of cars.
Now
assume that Ruritania imports 7 cars at $6 per car and uses its
remaining resources to produce 58 bushels of wheat, again at $1 per
bushel. Because of the trade, Ruritania prospers. Ruritania now has
more cars and more wheat than it had when it wasn't trading with the
rest of the world. The point is that trade allows the country to use
its resources more efficiently. This is the essence of the law of
comparative advantage.
Generally,
however, governments allow some trade, but not free trade, between
their citizens and foreign citizens. Governments protect domestic
industries, manage this trade with lengthy trade agreements, or limit
the trade with trade sanctions of some sort. Trade restrictions
increase import prices. In the case of Ruritania, protectionist
policies increase the price of foreign cars to $8 per car and at this
higher price only 6 cars are imported into Ruritania. This gives
Ruritania enough remaining resources to produce 52 bushels of wheat.
Let's
recap. When Ruritanian citizens were not allowed to trade with the rest
of the world, they used their resources to produce and consume 5 cars
and 50 bushels of wheat annually. With free trade, Ruritanians had 7
cars and 58 bushels of wheat to consume every year. When trade was
limited due to government intervention, only 6 cars and 52 bushels of
wheat were available. This is the fundamental case for trade. Free
trade leads to greater wealth and prosperity. Trade restrictions force
a society to waste its resources.
What's not to Understand?
Given
the airtight case for free trade, the question arises: why do
governments intervene in international trade? Why do governments
restrict international commerce? If free trade is in the public
interest and protection is detrimental to the economy, why is there so
much protection?
One
obvious answer is that government officials often do not act in the
public's interest. They tend to enact policies that have
concentrated benefits for special interests and disperse the costs of
the policies around to a large part of the population. Policies that
are harmful to the country overall often generate votes and monetary
contributions to political candidates. So while this doesn't makes
sense from the point of view of the country overall, government
officials have an incentive to enact destructive policies.[2] In
the case of protection, the costs are dispersed to consumers in general
in the form of higher prices, but generate political support from the
protected industry.
Infant Industries Argument
While
it's true that protection is driven by the self-interest of
politicians, let's consider the arguments that conclude that limiting
trade is good for a country, beginning with the well-known infant
industries argument. According to this argument, it's in a country's
interest for the government to protect a developing industry in its
infancy. The industry has a period of infancy during which it is not
yet prepared to compete on world markets but once the industry grows up
and becomes a mature industry it won't need protection any longer. It
will be competitive and provide economic benefits for the country.
Protection will allow industries that otherwise would fail to grow and
prosper, thereby benefiting the country in the long run.
Consider
first the infancy period of an industry. There are only two
possibilities here: either the present value, the current value of the
future stream of profits and losses, of a firm in this infant industry
is positive, in which case private investment will fund the industry
during its infancy, or the present value of an investment in this
industry is negative, in which case the industry may fail without
government protection.
If
this present value were positive, there would be no need for
protection. Private investment would fund the industry. Therefore, the
infant industries argument applies to an industry that has a negative
present value of its infancy period. Such an industry necessarily takes
losses before it becomes competitive.
Let's
say that the present value of these losses is $10. Now compare these
losses with the present value of the stream of profits of this same
industry when it's a mature competitive industry no longer in need of
protection. There are only two possibilities here, either these
profits are less than or greater than $10, the present value of the
losses of the infant industry. In the first case, the present value of
these profits is, say, $8. The industry loses $10 during its infancy
and generates profits of $8 as a mature industry. The present value of
the overall future stream of profits during the life of this industry
is a negative $2. Investing in this industry generates overall losses.
Private industry would not make this investment and protecting this
industry simply wastes resources. This infant industry should be
allowed to die. It should not have government protection.
The
other possibility is that this industry loses $10 in its infancy, but
generates profits greater than $10, say $12, as a mature industry. The
total present value of this industry is $2. Maybe this is the type of
industry that deserves protection, since the losses incurred during the
infancy period are less than the industry's profits during its mature
stage.
Further
consideration, however, reveals that even this industry should not be
protected. First of all, government officials have neither the
incentive to act in the public's interest nor the ability to make the
calculations described above. It's in the public's interest for this
industry to develop, but there is no reason to expect the government to
recognize this and to be able to protect the appropriate industries.
But more importantly, there is no need to protect this industry. This
is a worthwhile venture. Private entities would be expected to
recognize this investment opportunity and fund this industry. In short,
protecting infant industries either wastes resources or is unnecessary.
Another
side of the infant industry argument is the position that some infant
industries that lose money in the long run need to be protected because
this will generate capital formation and economic growth. According to
this argument, the industry loses $10 during its infancy and generates
$8 of profits when it is mature, but the overall losses of $2 are
offset by the fact that the increase in capital formation generates
economic growth that is beneficial to society overall.
The
problem with this argument is that protection does not increase the
amount of capital available, it simply reallocates capital from
unprotected industries, comparative advantage industries, to protected
industries, which tend to be industries that do not have a comparative
advantage. Capital formation is due to savings. An increase in savings
leads to an increase in investment in capital formation. Protecting an
industry that is not profitable would be more likely to be harmful to
savings and capital formation. Again, protecting infant industries
wastes society's resources.
National Defense
A
second popular argument for protection is the national defense
argument. According to this position, during times of peace the
government needs to protect vital industries, such as the steel
industry, because during wartime steel imports may be restricted and
the government will need steel for the war effort. There are three
problems with this argument. First of all, protection itself leads to
conflict between countries. Countries that trade with each other are
less likely to go to war.
Look
at it this way. My family trades with Wal-Mart. We have a very large
trade deficit with Wal-Mart, importing lots of goods and services from
them and exporting nothing to them in return. Suppose that Wal-Mart's
management team hated my family because we are a freedom loving people
and Christian to boot. Even though they hate our virtuous lifestyle,
the fact that we trade with them makes it less likely that they will
attack us since this would impose costs on them. They would lose the
profits they receive from my trade. Similarly, countries that trade
freely with each other are less likely to go to war because they would
have to give up the benefits of trade.
Suppose
that in spite of the trade between two countries, their governments
still choose to go to war. Engaging in free trade during times of peace
makes a country prosperous, allowing it to build up its industry,
therefore providing more resources during times of war. Protection
impoverishes a country reducing its ability to effectively fight a war.
Free trade during peacetime enriches a country so that it can produce
more steel and other goods vital for a war effort.
A third point against the national defense argument is the previously mentioned calculation argument.[3] Assume
that free trade during peacetime did not make a country prosperous, did
not provide more resources during times of war. Even in this case, the
national defense argument breaks down. Government agents cannot make
the calculations necessary to judge which industries to protect, when
to protect them, and how much protection to provide. Government
officials will tend to provide this protection based on political
judgments. Private industry can undertake the monetary calculation
needed to make investment decisions and will do a better job of
allocating resources to a war effort. An upcoming war will tend to
increase the prices of certain goods. Private industry will recognize
this and shift resources into the industries needed for war. If the
government is going to need steel to fight a war, private investment
will expand the steel industry in anticipation of this demand. Free
trade strengthens and protection harms national defense.
Cheap Labor?
A
third argument for protection is the cheap foreign labor argument.
Here, the case is made that trade with countries with cheap labor will
decrease domestic wages and jobs will be lost to these countries.
Protection will increase the price of imports, preventing this loss of
jobs and propping up domestic wages.
The
problem with this argument is that it ignores which industries suffer
from trade. Yes, under a free trade regime, jobs will be lost in
certain industries, industries where the country is at a competitive
disadvantage. However, jobs will be gained in industries where the
country has a comparative advantage.
In
the earlier example, Ruritania had a comparative advantage in the
production of wheat. When it traded for cars, it increased its wheat
production. Workers and resources moved out of the car industry into
the wheat industry. Ruritanian workers get paid more in the wheat
industry than the car industry, because they have a comparative
advantage in wheat production.
Under
free trade, workers tend to be in jobs where they have a comparative
advantage. Marginal productivity increases. Wages increase. Therefore,
workers, as a whole, have higher wages under free trade than they do
with protectionist policies.
Also,
the real value of workers' wage rates is determined by the prices of
the goods the workers want to consume. Protection increases consumer
prices, reducing real wages. Free trade keeps prices low, increasing
real wage rates. Workers, as consumers, are the beneficiaries of free
trade.
The Trade Deficit
A
fourth pro-protectionist argument is the anti-trade deficit argument. A
trade deficit means that a country is importing, in dollar terms, more
goods than it is exporting. According to this line of reasoning,
eliminating a trade deficit would imply either increasing exports or
decreasing imports. This would either benefit exporting industries or
it would benefit the domestic competitors of foreign imports. In both
cases, wages would tend to increase in these particular domestic
industries. So, trade deficits are economically harmful and protection
that is used to eliminate a trade deficit benefits the country overall.
In
order to see the fallacy in this argument, it's important to follow the
money. A trade deficit implies that more currency is flowing out of the
country to pay for imports than is entering the country as payment for
exports. This implies one of two situations. Either this currency stays
out of the country or it flows back into the country in terms of
capital inflows. In the former case, dollars are flowing out of the
country and are being held by foreign interests. Foreign agents are
trading goods and services that required valuable resources to produce
in return for dollars that cost little, in terms of resources, to
produce. Not only are such exchanges profitable, the currency outflow
reduces the amount of currency within the domestic country, benefiting
consumers by reducing prices within the country.
In
the latter case, the trade deficit is associated with a net capital
inflow. The currency outflow due to the trade deficit is offset by a
currency inflow as foreign interests acquire assets within the country.
These capital inflows tend to be investments. Foreign interests
increase capital formation, they buy bonds and stocks, they build
businesses, they create jobs and drive up wages, and they put their
money in banks, reducing interest rates.
A
country that attracts foreign investment, in other words a country with
a healthy economy, will tend to have a net capital inflow and this will
be associated with a trade deficit. There is every reason to see the
benefits of such a situation. Both the acquisition of imports and the
foreign investment are good for the country. Trade deficits do not
justify protectionist policies.
The Question of Sanctions
The
case against free trade also includes the argument that the government
should restrict trade in order to punish foreign governments. Sometimes
trade restrictions are imposed not to protect a domestic industry, but
to harm a foreign country. Embargoes and trade sanctions are policies
that limit or eliminate trade with a particular foreign country. Such
policies are meant to harm the targeted country in order to get that
country's government to change its policies.
Much
of the case for sanctions is based on political philosophy. Economic
analysis, however, provides a framework for considering this policy
question. Sanctions restrict trade between countries and have the same
effects as protectionist policies. If country A imposes sanctions on
country B, both countries suffer. Resources are not allocated
efficiently, consumer prices rise, and real wages fall.
Oftentimes,
a large country imposes sanctions on a small country. If country A were
much larger than country B, then the sanctions would harm country B
relatively more than country A. A billion dollars of damage is
proportionally more harmful to a small economy than to a large economy.
The damage to the large country is sometimes overlooked because it is
relatively minor. Nonetheless, it's important to recognize that a
government if harming its own citizens when it imposes sanctions on
other countries.
Also,
sanctions are often imposed in response to alleged human rights
violations. The goal of the sanctions is to give the foreign government
an incentive to stop its oppressive policies. Consider what is
happening here. The citizens of two countries, A and B, are mutually
benefiting from trade. However, country B's government is oppressing
its citizens. Country A's government imposes sanctions on country B,
eliminating trade between the citizens of the two countries. In this
situation, citizens in country B are being oppressed by their own
government, and due to the sanctions, are also being harmed by the
foreign government. The sanctions harm the people that they supposedly
meant to help. If the goal is to aid the victims of human rights
violations, free trade is the correct policy.
In
short, the case for free trade is unassailable and the arguments for
trade restrictions are flawed. Trade restrictions harm consumers and
efficient firms at the expense of less competent firms. Trade generates
economic efficiencies, driving down prices, benefiting consumers, and
increasing real wages.[4]
Mark Brandly teaches economics at Patrick Henry College. Send him MAIL. See his Mises.org Daily Article Archive.
[1] For a great explanation of this point, see Steven Landsburgâs âIowa Car Cropâ in his The Armchair Economist: Economics and Everyday Life, 1993.
[2] For an explanation of this argument see, for example, Tullock, Gordon, Government: Whose Obedient Servant, 2000, pp. 1â85.
[3] For a more complete discussion of the calculation argument, see Mises, Ludwig von, Economic Calculation in the Socialist Commonwealth, 1920.
[4] For further discussion on issues in international trade theory, I recommend Haberler, Gottfried, Theory of International Trade, 1935.